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AS Sobemap vs Bani Gansè — Championnat National 2019

AS Sobemap
AS Sobemap
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bani Gansè
Bani Gansè
2/7/2026Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

AS Sobemap43%
×Draw32%
Bani Gansè25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Sobemap
1.08
Bani Gansè
0.76

AS Sobemap creates 42% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 74 away

creates per match

AS Sobemap
1.09
Bani Gansè
0.74

allows per match

AS Sobemap
0.78
Bani Gansè
1.07

finishing

AS Sobemap+0.00on par
Bani Gansè+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Sobemap ↓

Bani Gansè →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

AS Sobemap or draw
75%
AS Sobemap or Bani Gansè
68%
Draw or Bani Gansè
57%

Winning margin

AS Sobemap wins by 2+
17%
Bani Gansè wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

AS Sobemap 1+ goals
66%
AS Sobemap 2+ goals
29%
AS Sobemap 3+ goals
10%
Bani Gansè 1+ goals
53%
Bani Gansè 2+ goals
18%
Bani Gansè 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

AS Sobemap (draw refunded)
63%
Bani Gansè (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Sobemap at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.78 · 108 matches

Bani Gansè away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.07 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Sobemap attack 1.09 + Bani Gansè defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Bani Gansè attack 0.74 + AS Sobemap defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

AS Sobemap scores more
43%
level
32%
Bani Gansè scores more
25%

AS Sobemap at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "AS Sobemap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Sobemap vs Bani Gansè

Bani Gansè beat AS Sobemap 1-0 in Championnat National on February 7, 2026.