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Bangor vs Ballymena United — League #408 2026

Bangor
Bangor
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ballymena United
Ballymena United
12/30/2025League #408League #408 · Round 23Clandeboye Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Bangor39%
×Draw24%
Ballymena United37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bangor
1.52
Ballymena United
1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

creates per match

Bangor
1.20
Ballymena United
1.33

allows per match

Bangor
1.60
Ballymena United
1.83

finishing

Bangor+0.00on par
Ballymena United+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangor ↓

Ballymena United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Bangor or draw
63%
Bangor or Ballymena United
76%
Draw or Ballymena United
61%

Winning margin

Bangor wins by 2+
19%
Ballymena United wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bangor 1+ goals
78%
Bangor 2+ goals
45%
Bangor 3+ goals
20%
Ballymena United 1+ goals
77%
Ballymena United 2+ goals
43%
Ballymena United 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bangor (draw refunded)
51%
Ballymena United (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangor at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Ballymena United away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangor attack 1.20 + Ballymena United defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.52

Ballymena United attack 1.33 + Bangor defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bangor scores more
39%
level
24%
Ballymena United scores more
37%

Bangor at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bangor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bangor vs Ballymena United

Bangor beat Ballymena United 2-0 in League #408 on December 30, 2025.

The match was played at Clandeboye Park.