Ballymena United 1–1 Bangor: Result & Stats

Ballymena United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bangor

Unknown 29' (pen)

Unknown 90+1'

7/20/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3The Showgrounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ballymena United64%

×Draw18%

Bangor18%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ballymena UnitedExpected goals in this matchBangor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

1.33

Ballymena United

2.58

Bangor

1.33

Ballymena United creates 94% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

2.67

creates per match

1.67

1.00

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Ballymena United

2.67

Bangor

1.67

allows per match

Ballymena United

1.00

Bangor

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ballymena United+0.00on par

Bangor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballymena United ↓

Bangor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Ballymena United or draw

82%

Ballymena United or Bangor

82%

Draw or Bangor

36%

Winning margin

Ballymena United wins by 2+

43%

Bangor wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ballymena United 1+ goals

92%

Ballymena United 2+ goals

72%

Ballymena United 3+ goals

47%

Bangor 1+ goals

74%

Bangor 2+ goals

38%

Bangor 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Ballymena United (draw refunded)

78%

Bangor (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballymena United at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Bangor away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballymena United attack 2.67 + Bangor defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.58

Bangor attack 1.67 + Ballymena United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Ballymena United scores more

64%

level

18%

Bangor scores more

18%

Ballymena United at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Ballymena United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

Penalty

90+1'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff