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Bangor vs Ballinamallard United — League #407 2026

Bangor
Bangor
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ballinamallard United
Ballinamallard United
B. Arthurs 75', 55', 43'
J. Reilly 52'
2/15/2025League #407League #407 · Round 28Bangor Fuels Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Bangor53%
×Draw21%
Ballinamallard United25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bangor
2.05
Ballinamallard United
1.36

Bangor creates 51% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 14 away

creates per match

Bangor
2.40
Ballinamallard United
1.57

allows per match

Bangor
1.15
Ballinamallard United
1.71

finishing

Bangor+0.00on par
Ballinamallard United+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangor ↓

Ballinamallard United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Bangor or draw
75%
Bangor or Ballinamallard United
79%
Draw or Ballinamallard United
47%

Winning margin

Bangor wins by 2+
31%
Ballinamallard United wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bangor 1+ goals
87%
Bangor 2+ goals
61%
Bangor 3+ goals
33%
Ballinamallard United 1+ goals
74%
Ballinamallard United 2+ goals
39%
Ballinamallard United 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bangor (draw refunded)
68%
Ballinamallard United (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangor at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

Ballinamallard United away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangor attack 2.40 + Ballinamallard United defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.05

Ballinamallard United attack 1.57 + Bangor defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bangor scores more
53%
level
21%
Ballinamallard United scores more
25%

Bangor at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bangor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
B. Arthurs
52'
J. Reilly
55'
B. Arthurs
75'
B. Arthurs

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #407: Bangor 4–0 Ballinamallard United

Bangor beat Ballinamallard United 4-0 in League #407 on February 15, 2025.

Goals: B. Arthurs (43', 55', 75'), J. Reilly (52').

The match was played at Bangor Fuels Arena in Bangor.