Ballinamallard United 0–4 Bangor: Result & Stats

Ballinamallard United

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Bangor

L. Harrison 90+3'

B. Arthurs 77'

L. Francis 45+1'

S. McArthur 4'

3/9/2024

League #407 · Round 31Ferney Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ballinamallard United30%

×Draw22%

Bangor48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ballinamallard UnitedExpected goals in this matchBangor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.96

Ballinamallard United

1.50

Bangor

1.96

Bangor creates 31% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

1.67

creates per match

2.58

1.33

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Ballinamallard United

1.67

Bangor

2.58

allows per match

Ballinamallard United

1.33

Bangor

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ballinamallard United+0.00on par

Bangor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballinamallard United ↓

Bangor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Ballinamallard United or draw

52%

Ballinamallard United or Bangor

78%

Draw or Bangor

70%

Winning margin

Ballinamallard United wins by 2+

14%

Bangor wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Ballinamallard United 1+ goals

78%

Ballinamallard United 2+ goals

44%

Ballinamallard United 3+ goals

19%

Bangor 1+ goals

86%

Bangor 2+ goals

58%

Bangor 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Ballinamallard United (draw refunded)

38%

Bangor (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballinamallard United at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Bangor away — creates 2.58, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballinamallard United attack 1.67 + Bangor defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.50

Bangor attack 2.58 + Ballinamallard United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ballinamallard United scores more

30%

level

22%

Bangor scores more

48%

Bangor at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bangor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

S. McArthur

45+1'

L. Francis

77'

B. Arthurs

90+3'

L. Harrison

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff