Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bangor vs Armagh City — League #561 2026

Bangor
Bangor
FT
5 – 0
Armagh City
Armagh City
10/8/2022League #561League #561 · Round 5Bangor Fuels Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Bangor61%
×Draw20%
Armagh City20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bangor
2.24
Armagh City
1.20

Bangor creates 87% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

creates per match

Bangor
2.88
Armagh City
1.90

allows per match

Bangor
0.50
Armagh City
1.60

finishing

Bangor+0.00on par
Armagh City+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangor ↓

Armagh City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Bangor or draw
80%
Bangor or Armagh City
80%
Draw or Armagh City
39%

Winning margin

Bangor wins by 2+
38%
Armagh City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bangor 1+ goals
89%
Bangor 2+ goals
65%
Bangor 3+ goals
38%
Armagh City 1+ goals
70%
Armagh City 2+ goals
34%
Armagh City 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bangor (draw refunded)
76%
Armagh City (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangor at home — creates 2.88, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Armagh City away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangor attack 2.88 + Armagh City defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.24

Armagh City attack 1.90 + Bangor defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Bangor scores more
61%
level
20%
Armagh City scores more
20%

Bangor at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Bangor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bangor vs Armagh City

Bangor beat Armagh City 5-0 in League #561 on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Bangor Fuels Arena in Bangor.