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Armagh City vs Bangor — League #407 2026

Armagh City
Armagh City
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Bangor
Bangor
C. Mullen 1'
S. McArthur 82'
B. Cushnie 51', 42'
M. Ferguson 33'
9/21/2024League #407League #407 · Round 8Holm Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Armagh City16%
×Draw17%
Bangor66%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Armagh City
1.27
Bangor
2.66

Bangor creates 109% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 6 away

creates per match

Armagh City
1.71
Bangor
2.67

allows per match

Armagh City
2.65
Bangor
0.83

finishing

Armagh City+0.00on par
Bangor+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armagh City ↓

Bangor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Armagh City or draw
34%
Armagh City or Bangor
83%
Draw or Bangor
84%

Winning margin

Armagh City wins by 2+
6%
Bangor wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Armagh City 1+ goals
72%
Armagh City 2+ goals
36%
Armagh City 3+ goals
14%
Bangor 1+ goals
93%
Bangor 2+ goals
74%
Bangor 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Armagh City (draw refunded)
20%
Bangor (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armagh City at home — creates 1.71, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Bangor away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armagh City attack 1.71 + Bangor defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.27

Bangor attack 2.67 + Armagh City defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Armagh City scores more
16%
level
17%
Bangor scores more
66%

Bangor at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Bangor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
C. Mullen
33'
M. Ferguson
42'
B. Cushnie
51'
B. Cushnie
82'
S. McArthur

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #407: Armagh City 1–4 Bangor

Bangor beat Armagh City 4-1 in League #407 on September 21, 2024.

Goals: C. Mullen (1'), M. Ferguson (33'), B. Cushnie (42', 51'), S. McArthur (82').

The match was played at Holm Park in Armagh.