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Bangkok vs Port FC — League Cup 2021

Bangkok
Bangkok
FT
1 – 6
HT: 1 – 2
Port FC
Port FC
12/6/2023League CupLeague Cup · 1st RoundBang MOD Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bangkok16%
×Draw16%
Port FC68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bangkok
1.43
Port FC
2.96

Port FC creates 107% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Bangkok
1.86
Port FC
2.50

allows per match

Bangkok
3.43
Port FC
1.00

finishing

Bangkok+0.00on par
Port FC+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangkok ↓

Port FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Bangkok or draw
32%
Bangkok or Port FC
84%
Draw or Port FC
84%

Winning margin

Bangkok wins by 2+
7%
Port FC wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Bangkok 1+ goals
76%
Bangkok 2+ goals
42%
Bangkok 3+ goals
17%
Port FC 1+ goals
95%
Port FC 2+ goals
79%
Port FC 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Bangkok (draw refunded)
19%
Port FC (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangkok at home — creates 1.86, concedes 3.43 · 7 matches

Port FC away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangkok attack 1.86 + Port FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Port FC attack 2.50 + Bangkok defence 3.43 → ÷2 → 2.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Bangkok scores more
16%
level
16%
Port FC scores more
68%

Port FC at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Port FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Bangkok 1–6 Port FC

Port FC beat Bangkok 6-1 in League Cup on December 6, 2023.

The match was played at Bang MOD Stadium in Thonburi.