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Bangkok vs Port FC — FA Cup 2018

Bangkok
Bangkok
AET
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Port FC
Port FC
11/7/2020FA CupFA Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Bangkok42%
×Draw19%
Port FC39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bangkok
2.49
Port FC
2.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

Bangkok
3.89
Port FC
3.82

allows per match

Bangkok
1.00
Port FC
1.09

finishing

Bangkok+0.00on par
Port FC+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangkok ↓

Port FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Bangkok or draw
61%
Bangkok or Port FC
81%
Draw or Port FC
58%

Winning margin

Bangkok wins by 2+
25%
Port FC wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Bangkok 1+ goals
92%
Bangkok 2+ goals
71%
Bangkok 3+ goals
45%
Port FC 1+ goals
91%
Port FC 2+ goals
69%
Port FC 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Bangkok (draw refunded)
52%
Port FC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangkok at home — creates 3.89, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Port FC away — creates 3.82, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangkok attack 3.89 + Port FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 2.49

Port FC attack 3.82 + Bangkok defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bangkok scores more
42%
level
19%
Port FC scores more
39%

Bangkok at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bangkok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Bangkok 2–4 Port FC

Port FC beat Bangkok 4-2 in FA Cup on November 7, 2020.