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Bangkok vs Pattani — Thai League 2 2018

Bangkok
Bangkok
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Pattani
Pattani
11/2/2025Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 11Chalerm Phrakiat Bang Mod Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bangkok36%
×Draw27%
Pattani37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bangkok
1.26
Pattani
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 19 away

creates per match

Bangkok
1.15
Pattani
1.32

allows per match

Bangkok
1.26
Pattani
1.37

finishing

Bangkok+0.00on par
Pattani+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangkok ↓

Pattani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bangkok or draw
63%
Bangkok or Pattani
73%
Draw or Pattani
64%

Winning margin

Bangkok wins by 2+
16%
Pattani wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bangkok 1+ goals
72%
Bangkok 2+ goals
36%
Bangkok 3+ goals
13%
Pattani 1+ goals
72%
Pattani 2+ goals
37%
Pattani 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bangkok (draw refunded)
49%
Pattani (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangkok at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Pattani away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangkok attack 1.15 + Pattani defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.26

Pattani attack 1.32 + Bangkok defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bangkok scores more
36%
level
27%
Pattani scores more
37%

Pattani at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Pattani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bangkok vs Pattani

Pattani beat Bangkok 2-1 in Thai League 2 on November 2, 2025.

The match was played at Chalerm Phrakiat Bang Mod Stadium.