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Bangkok vs Lamphun Warrior — League Cup 2021

Bangkok
Bangkok
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Lamphun Warrior
Lamphun Warrior
11/16/2022League CupLeague Cup · 1st RoundBang MOD Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bangkok11%
×Draw14%
Lamphun Warrior76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bangkok
1.13
Lamphun Warrior
3.12

Lamphun Warrior creates 176% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Bangkok
1.86
Lamphun Warrior
2.80

allows per match

Bangkok
3.43
Lamphun Warrior
0.40

finishing

Bangkok+0.00on par
Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangkok ↓

Lamphun Warrior →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–15%
0–27%
0–38%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Bangkok or draw
24%
Bangkok or Lamphun Warrior
86%
Draw or Lamphun Warrior
89%

Winning margin

Bangkok wins by 2+
4%
Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

Bangkok 1+ goals
68%
Bangkok 2+ goals
31%
Bangkok 3+ goals
11%
Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals
95%
Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals
81%
Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals
59%

Draw no bet

Bangkok (draw refunded)
12%
Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangkok at home — creates 1.86, concedes 3.43 · 7 matches

Lamphun Warrior away — creates 2.80, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangkok attack 1.86 + Lamphun Warrior defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.13

Lamphun Warrior attack 2.80 + Bangkok defence 3.43 → ÷2 → 3.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Bangkok scores more
11%
level
14%
Lamphun Warrior scores more
76%

Lamphun Warrior at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Lamphun Warrior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Bangkok 1–4 Lamphun Warrior

Lamphun Warrior beat Bangkok 4-1 in League Cup on November 16, 2022.

The match was played at Bang MOD Stadium in Thonburi.