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Bangkok vs Lamphun Warrior — FA Cup 2018

Bangkok
Bangkok
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lamphun Warrior
Lamphun Warrior
11/24/2021FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundBang MOD Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Bangkok55%
×Draw20%
Lamphun Warrior25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bangkok
2.31
Lamphun Warrior
1.50

Bangkok creates 54% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

Bangkok
3.89
Lamphun Warrior
2.00

allows per match

Bangkok
1.00
Lamphun Warrior
0.73

finishing

Bangkok+0.00on par
Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangkok ↓

Lamphun Warrior →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Bangkok or draw
75%
Bangkok or Lamphun Warrior
80%
Draw or Lamphun Warrior
45%

Winning margin

Bangkok wins by 2+
34%
Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bangkok 1+ goals
90%
Bangkok 2+ goals
67%
Bangkok 3+ goals
40%
Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals
78%
Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals
44%
Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Bangkok (draw refunded)
69%
Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangkok at home — creates 3.89, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Lamphun Warrior away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangkok attack 3.89 + Lamphun Warrior defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 2.31

Lamphun Warrior attack 2.00 + Bangkok defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bangkok scores more
55%
level
20%
Lamphun Warrior scores more
25%

Bangkok at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bangkok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bangkok vs Lamphun Warrior

Bangkok and Lamphun Warrior drew 1-1 in FA Cup on November 24, 2021.

The match was played at Bang MOD Stadium in Thonburi.