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Banga vs TransINVEST Vilnius — A Lyga 2026

Banga
Banga
Preview
15:45
TransINVEST Vilnius
TransINVEST Vilnius
9/14/2026A LygaA Lyga · Round 31Gargzdai stadium
Big match
39%
TransINVEST Vilnius
model favours
34%26%39%

Banga score first in only 26% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Banga34%
×Draw26%
TransINVEST Vilnius39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banga
1.24
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 30 away

creates per match

Banga
1.10
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.27

allows per match

Banga
1.44
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.37

finishing

Banga+0.00on par
TransINVEST Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 52Over: 4852%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banga ↓

TransINVEST Vilnius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Banga or draw
61%
Banga or TransINVEST Vilnius
74%
Draw or TransINVEST Vilnius
66%

Winning margin

Banga wins by 2+
15%
TransINVEST Vilnius wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Banga 1+ goals
71%
Banga 2+ goals
35%
Banga 3+ goals
13%
TransINVEST Vilnius 1+ goals
74%
TransINVEST Vilnius 2+ goals
39%
TransINVEST Vilnius 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Banga (draw refunded)
47%
TransINVEST Vilnius (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banga at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.44 · 108 matches

TransINVEST Vilnius away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banga attack 1.10 + TransINVEST Vilnius defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.24

TransINVEST Vilnius attack 1.27 + Banga defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Banga scores more
34%
level
26%
TransINVEST Vilnius scores more
39%

TransINVEST Vilnius at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "TransINVEST Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • TransINVEST Vilnius score first in only 32% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 26% of Banga’s matches
  • Both teams score in 74% of TransINVEST Vilnius’s matches
  • TransINVEST Vilnius raise their game against the top half — 38% wins vs the upper half, only 35% vs the lower
  • 70% of Banga’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • 31% of Banga’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Banga
LWW
Vilnius
LLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Banga face TransINVEST Vilnius (A Lyga)

A Lyga returns with Banga hosting TransINVEST Vilnius. Match starts September 14, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Banga host TransINVEST Vilnius at Gargzdai stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.