Banga 1–1 Kauno Žalgiris: Result & Stats | A Lyga

Banga

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kauno Žalgiris

3/2/2024

A Lyga · Round 1Gargždų miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Banga28%

×Draw26%

Kauno Žalgiris46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BangaExpected goals in this matchKauno Žalgiris

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.46

Banga

1.08

Kauno Žalgiris

1.46

Kauno Žalgiris creates 35% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 127 away

1.09

creates per match

1.46

1.45

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Banga

1.09

Kauno Žalgiris

1.46

allows per match

Banga

1.45

Kauno Žalgiris

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Banga+0.00on par

Kauno Žalgiris+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banga ↓

Kauno Žalgiris →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Banga or draw

54%

Banga or Kauno Žalgiris

74%

Draw or Kauno Žalgiris

72%

Winning margin

Banga wins by 2+

11%

Kauno Žalgiris wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Banga 1+ goals

66%

Banga 2+ goals

29%

Banga 3+ goals

10%

Kauno Žalgiris 1+ goals

77%

Kauno Žalgiris 2+ goals

43%

Kauno Žalgiris 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Banga (draw refunded)

38%

Kauno Žalgiris (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banga at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

Kauno Žalgiris away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banga attack 1.09 + Kauno Žalgiris defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Kauno Žalgiris attack 1.46 + Banga defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Banga scores more

28%

level

26%

Kauno Žalgiris scores more

46%

Kauno Žalgiris at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kauno Žalgiris will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff