Bandari 1–0 Bidco United: Result & Stats

Bandari

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bidco United

W. Wadri 60'

3/28/2026

FKF Premier League · Round 26Mbaraki Sports Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Bandari43%

×Draw33%

Bidco United24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BandariExpected goals in this matchBidco United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

0.69

Bandari

1.03

Bidco United

0.69

Bandari creates 49% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 23 away

0.94

creates per match

0.70

0.67

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Bandari

0.94

Bidco United

0.70

allows per match

Bandari

0.67

Bidco United

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bandari+0.00on par

Bidco United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandari ↓

Bidco United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Bandari or draw

76%

Bandari or Bidco United

67%

Draw or Bidco United

57%

Winning margin

Bandari wins by 2+

17%

Bidco United wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Bandari 1+ goals

64%

Bandari 2+ goals

28%

Bandari 3+ goals

9%

Bidco United 1+ goals

50%

Bidco United 2+ goals

15%

Bidco United 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Bandari (draw refunded)

64%

Bidco United (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandari at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.67 · 18 matches

Bidco United away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandari attack 0.94 + Bidco United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.03

Bidco United attack 0.70 + Bandari defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bandari scores more

43%

level

33%

Bidco United scores more

24%

Bandari at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bandari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'

W. Wadri

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff