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Bandari vs Bidco United — FKF Premier League 2025

Bandari
Bandari
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bidco United
Bidco United
A. Juma 44'
E. Mogaka 60' (pen)
4/13/2024FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 24Mombasa Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Bandari40%
×Draw34%
Bidco United26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bandari
0.98
Bidco United
0.72

Bandari creates 36% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 36 away

creates per match

Bandari
0.90
Bidco United
0.69

allows per match

Bandari
0.75
Bidco United
1.06

finishing

Bandari+0.00on par
Bidco United+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandari ↓

Bidco United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Bandari or draw
74%
Bandari or Bidco United
66%
Draw or Bidco United
60%

Winning margin

Bandari wins by 2+
15%
Bidco United wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bandari 1+ goals
62%
Bandari 2+ goals
26%
Bandari 3+ goals
8%
Bidco United 1+ goals
51%
Bidco United 2+ goals
16%
Bidco United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bandari (draw refunded)
61%
Bidco United (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandari at home — creates 0.90, concedes 0.75 · 20 matches

Bidco United away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.06 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandari attack 0.90 + Bidco United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.98

Bidco United attack 0.69 + Bandari defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bandari scores more
40%
level
34%
Bidco United scores more
26%

Bandari at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bandari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
A. Juma
60'
E. MogakaPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Bandari 1–1 Bidco United

Bandari and Bidco United drew 1-1 in FKF Premier League on April 13, 2024.

Goals: A. Juma (44'), E. Mogaka (60' pen).

The match was played at Mombasa Municipal Stadium in Mombasa.