Bandırmaspor 2–4 Sivasspor: Result & Stats

Bandırmaspor

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Sivasspor

G. Landel 54'

L. Ayçiçek 34'

M. Gradel 84', 45+3', 2'

A. Appindangoye 79'

2/9/2022

Türkiye Kupası · Round of 16Bandırma 17 Eylül Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Bandırmaspor38%

×Draw23%

Sivasspor40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BandırmasporExpected goals in this matchSivasspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.75

Bandırmaspor

1.71

Sivasspor

1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

2.33

creates per match

2.27

1.22

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Bandırmaspor

2.33

Sivasspor

2.27

allows per match

Bandırmaspor

1.22

Sivasspor

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bandırmaspor+0.00on par

Sivasspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandırmaspor ↓

Sivasspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Bandırmaspor or draw

60%

Bandırmaspor or Sivasspor

77%

Draw or Sivasspor

62%

Winning margin

Bandırmaspor wins by 2+

19%

Sivasspor wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Bandırmaspor 1+ goals

82%

Bandırmaspor 2+ goals

51%

Bandırmaspor 3+ goals

24%

Sivasspor 1+ goals

83%

Sivasspor 2+ goals

52%

Sivasspor 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)

49%

Sivasspor (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandırmaspor at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Sivasspor away — creates 2.27, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandırmaspor attack 2.33 + Sivasspor defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.71

Sivasspor attack 2.27 + Bandırmaspor defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bandırmaspor scores more

38%

level

23%

Sivasspor scores more

40%

Sivasspor at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sivasspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

-5'

Gökhan Değirmenci

2'

M. Gradel↳ Pedro Henrique

24'

32'

34'

45+3'

46'

46'

46'

54'

58'

E. Yeşilyurt← Pedro Henrique

58'

K. Kesgin← Jorge Félix

62'

Koray Altınay

77'

C. Cavlan← S. Luş

78'

Remi Mulumba

79'

A. Appindangoye↳ K. Altınay

83'

84'

90'

90+1'

90+1'

C. Osmanpaşa← K. Altınay

90+5'

D. Goutas← F. Fajr

Possession

Shots

Statistics

BandırmasporSivasspor

Overview

55%Possession45%

10Total Shots11

5Corners3

13Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots11

4On Target6

6Off Target5

Passing

55%Possession45%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls15

1Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

4Offsides2

Türkiye Kupası: Bandırmaspor 2–4 Sivasspor

Sivasspor beat Bandırmaspor 4-2 in Türkiye Kupası on February 9, 2022.

Goals: M. Gradel (2', 45+3', 84'), L. Ayçiçek (34'), G. Landel (54'), A. Appindangoye (79').

Bandırmaspor controlled possession (55%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at Bandırma 17 Eylül Stadı in Bandırma.

Bandırmaspor vs Sivasspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Türkiye Kupası: Bandırmaspor 2–4 Sivasspor