Bandırmaspor 0–1 Sivasspor: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Bandırmaspor

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sivasspor

12/17/2016

1. Lig · Round 15Bandırma 17 Eylül Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bandırmaspor46%

×Draw27%

Sivasspor26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BandırmasporExpected goals in this matchSivasspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.97

Bandırmaspor

1.38

Sivasspor

0.97

Bandırmaspor creates 42% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 19 away

1.54

creates per match

0.89

1.05

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Bandırmaspor

1.54

Sivasspor

0.89

allows per match

Bandırmaspor

1.05

Sivasspor

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bandırmaspor+0.00on par

Sivasspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandırmaspor ↓

Sivasspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Bandırmaspor or draw

74%

Bandırmaspor or Sivasspor

73%

Draw or Sivasspor

54%

Winning margin

Bandırmaspor wins by 2+

22%

Sivasspor wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bandırmaspor 1+ goals

75%

Bandırmaspor 2+ goals

40%

Bandırmaspor 3+ goals

16%

Sivasspor 1+ goals

62%

Sivasspor 2+ goals

25%

Sivasspor 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)

64%

Sivasspor (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandırmaspor at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.05 · 112 matches

Sivasspor away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandırmaspor attack 1.54 + Sivasspor defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sivasspor attack 0.89 + Bandırmaspor defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bandırmaspor scores more

46%

level

27%

Sivasspor scores more

26%

Bandırmaspor at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bandırmaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff