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Bandırmaspor vs Esenler Erokspor — 1. Lig 2018

Bandırmaspor
Bandırmaspor
Preview
16:00
Esenler Erokspor
Esenler Erokspor
5/8/20271. Lig1. Lig · Round 38
38%
Esenler Erokspor
model favours
37%26%38%

Bandırmaspor are unbeaten in 12 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Bandırmaspor37%
×Draw26%
Esenler Erokspor38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bandırmaspor
1.36
Esenler Erokspor
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 38 away

creates per match

Bandırmaspor
1.54
Esenler Erokspor
1.71

allows per match

Bandırmaspor
1.05
Esenler Erokspor
1.18

finishing

Bandırmaspor+0.00on par
Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandırmaspor ↓

Esenler Erokspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bandırmaspor or draw
62%
Bandırmaspor or Esenler Erokspor
74%
Draw or Esenler Erokspor
63%

Winning margin

Bandırmaspor wins by 2+
17%
Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bandırmaspor 1+ goals
74%
Bandırmaspor 2+ goals
39%
Bandırmaspor 3+ goals
16%
Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals
75%
Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals
40%
Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)
49%
Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandırmaspor at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.05 · 112 matches

Esenler Erokspor away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandırmaspor attack 1.54 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.36

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.71 + Bandırmaspor defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bandırmaspor scores more
37%
level
26%
Esenler Erokspor scores more
38%

Esenler Erokspor at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bandırmaspor score first in only 8% of matches
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged just 1.3 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Bandırmaspor
Balanced
Esenler Erokspor
Possession-dominant
49%Possession56%
77%Pass accuracy81%
11.4Shots13.1
1.30xGBiggest gap1.65
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BandırmasporEsenler Erokspor

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

1
Bandırmaspor
3
Draws
0
Esenler Erokspor
Avg goals: 1.3BTTS: 50%
1–10–01–01–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Bandırmaspor
WDWDD
Erokspor
LDLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bandırmaspor face Esenler Erokspor (1. Lig)

1. Lig returns with Bandırmaspor hosting Esenler Erokspor. Match starts May 8, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.