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Banants II vs Aragats — First League 2019

Banants II
Banants II
FT
2 – 1
Aragats
Aragats
6/23/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 28Banants-3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Banants II51%
×Draw20%
Aragats29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banants II
2.37
Aragats
1.77

Banants II creates 34% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 14 away

creates per match

Banants II
1.88
Aragats
2.07

allows per match

Banants II
1.47
Aragats
2.86

finishing

Banants II+0.00on par
Aragats+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banants II ↓

Aragats →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Banants II or draw
71%
Banants II or Aragats
80%
Draw or Aragats
49%

Winning margin

Banants II wins by 2+
31%
Aragats wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Banants II 1+ goals
91%
Banants II 2+ goals
68%
Banants II 3+ goals
42%
Aragats 1+ goals
83%
Aragats 2+ goals
53%
Aragats 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Banants II (draw refunded)
64%
Aragats (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banants II at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.47 · 100 matches

Aragats away — creates 2.07, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banants II attack 1.88 + Aragats defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.37

Aragats attack 2.07 + Banants II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Banants II scores more
51%
level
20%
Aragats scores more
29%

Banants II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Banants II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Banants II vs Aragats

Banants II beat Aragats 2-1 in First League on June 23, 2020.

The match was played at Banants-3 in Yerevan.