Aragats 3–2 Banants II: Result & Stats

Aragats

FT

3 – 2

Banants II

10/18/2019

First League · Round 11Kasakhi Marzik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Aragats37%

×Draw21%

Banants II41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AragatsExpected goals in this matchBanants II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.96

Aragats

1.86

Banants II

1.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 99 away

1.93

creates per match

1.71

2.21

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Aragats

1.93

Banants II

1.71

allows per match

Aragats

2.21

Banants II

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aragats+0.00on par

Banants II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aragats ↓

Banants II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Aragats or draw

59%

Aragats or Banants II

79%

Draw or Banants II

63%

Winning margin

Aragats wins by 2+

20%

Banants II wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Aragats 1+ goals

84%

Aragats 2+ goals

55%

Aragats 3+ goals

28%

Banants II 1+ goals

86%

Banants II 2+ goals

58%

Banants II 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Aragats (draw refunded)

48%

Banants II (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aragats at home — creates 1.93, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

Banants II away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.79 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aragats attack 1.93 + Banants II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.86

Banants II attack 1.71 + Aragats defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Aragats scores more

37%

level

21%

Banants II scores more

41%

Banants II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Banants II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff