Bamboutos 1–1 Avion Academy: Result & Stats

Bamboutos

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Avion Academy

4/4/2026

Elite Two · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Bamboutos52%

×Draw25%

Avion Academy23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BamboutosExpected goals in this matchAvion Academy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.96

Bamboutos

1.58

Avion Academy

0.96

Bamboutos creates 65% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 19 away

1.90

creates per match

1.11

0.80

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Bamboutos

1.90

Avion Academy

1.11

allows per match

Bamboutos

0.80

Avion Academy

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bamboutos+0.00on par

Avion Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bamboutos ↓

Avion Academy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bamboutos or draw

77%

Bamboutos or Avion Academy

75%

Draw or Avion Academy

48%

Winning margin

Bamboutos wins by 2+

27%

Avion Academy wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bamboutos 1+ goals

79%

Bamboutos 2+ goals

47%

Bamboutos 3+ goals

21%

Avion Academy 1+ goals

62%

Avion Academy 2+ goals

25%

Avion Academy 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bamboutos (draw refunded)

69%

Avion Academy (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bamboutos at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Avion Academy away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bamboutos attack 1.90 + Avion Academy defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.58

Avion Academy attack 1.11 + Bamboutos defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bamboutos scores more

52%

level

25%

Avion Academy scores more

23%

Bamboutos at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bamboutos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff