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Bamboutos vs Avion Academy — Elite One 2019

Bamboutos
Bamboutos
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Avion Academy
Avion Academy
5/27/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 20Middle Farm Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Bamboutos46%
×Draw30%
Avion Academy24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bamboutos
1.23
Avion Academy
0.80

Bamboutos creates 54% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 67 away

creates per match

Bamboutos
1.22
Avion Academy
0.82

allows per match

Bamboutos
0.78
Avion Academy
1.25

finishing

Bamboutos+0.00on par
Avion Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bamboutos ↓

Avion Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bamboutos or draw
76%
Bamboutos or Avion Academy
70%
Draw or Avion Academy
54%

Winning margin

Bamboutos wins by 2+
21%
Avion Academy wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bamboutos 1+ goals
71%
Bamboutos 2+ goals
35%
Bamboutos 3+ goals
13%
Avion Academy 1+ goals
55%
Avion Academy 2+ goals
19%
Avion Academy 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bamboutos (draw refunded)
66%
Avion Academy (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bamboutos at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.78 · 78 matches

Avion Academy away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bamboutos attack 1.22 + Avion Academy defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Avion Academy attack 0.82 + Bamboutos defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bamboutos scores more
46%
level
30%
Avion Academy scores more
24%

Bamboutos at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bamboutos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Bamboutos 1–0 Avion Academy

Bamboutos beat Avion Academy 1-0 in Elite One on May 27, 2022.

The match was played at Middle Farm Stadium in Limbé.