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Balvu vs Auda — 1. Liga 2026

Balvu
Balvu
FT
1 – 2
Auda
Auda
7/27/20191. Liga1. Liga · Round 13Rugāju stadions (Rugāji)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Balvu13%
×Draw16%
Auda71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balvu
1.07
Auda
2.67

Auda creates 150% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 27 away

creates per match

Balvu
0.71
Auda
1.74

allows per match

Balvu
3.59
Auda
1.44

finishing

Balvu+0.00on par
Auda+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balvu ↓

Auda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–29%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Balvu or draw
29%
Balvu or Auda
84%
Draw or Auda
87%

Winning margin

Balvu wins by 2+
5%
Auda wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Balvu 1+ goals
66%
Balvu 2+ goals
29%
Balvu 3+ goals
9%
Auda 1+ goals
93%
Auda 2+ goals
74%
Auda 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Balvu (draw refunded)
16%
Auda (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balvu at home — creates 0.71, concedes 3.59 · 17 matches

Auda away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.44 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balvu attack 0.71 + Auda defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.07

Auda attack 1.74 + Balvu defence 3.59 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Balvu scores more
13%
level
16%
Auda scores more
71%

Auda at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Auda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Balvu vs Auda

Auda beat Balvu 2-1 in 1. Liga on July 27, 2019.

The match was played at Rugāju stadions (Rugāji).