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Auda vs Balvu — 1. Liga 2026

Auda
Auda
FT
8 – 0
Balvu
Balvu
10/5/20191. Liga1. Liga · Round 22Baldones Stadions (Baldone)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Auda92%
×Draw5%
Balvu3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Auda
5.21
Balvu
1.00

Auda creates 421% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 14 away

creates per match

Auda
3.22
Balvu
0.86

allows per match

Auda
1.15
Balvu
7.21

finishing

Auda+0.00on par
Balvu+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auda ↓

Balvu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–11%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (8%) · grid covers 55% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
82%18%4.5
65%35%

Double chance

Auda or draw
97%
Auda or Balvu
95%
Draw or Balvu
8%

Winning margin

Auda wins by 2+
82%
Balvu wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Auda 1+ goals
99%
Auda 2+ goals
95%
Auda 3+ goals
85%
Balvu 1+ goals
63%
Balvu 2+ goals
26%
Balvu 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Auda (draw refunded)
97%
Balvu (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auda at home — creates 3.22, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

Balvu away — creates 0.86, concedes 7.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auda attack 3.22 + Balvu defence 7.21 → ÷2 → 5.21

Balvu attack 0.86 + Auda defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Auda scores more
92%
level
5%
Balvu scores more
3%

Auda at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Auda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Auda vs Balvu

Auda beat Balvu 8-0 in 1. Liga on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Baldones Stadions (Baldone).