Baltika 1–1 Torpedo Moskva: Result & Stats

Baltika

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Torpedo Moskva

9/5/2021

First League · Round 9Stadion Kaliningrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Baltika40%

×Draw29%

Torpedo Moskva31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaltikaExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Moskva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.98

Baltika

1.16

Torpedo Moskva

0.98

Baltika creates 18% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 104 away

1.27

creates per match

1.22

0.75

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Baltika

1.27

Torpedo Moskva

1.22

allows per match

Baltika

0.75

Torpedo Moskva

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Torpedo Moskva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Baltika or draw

69%

Baltika or Torpedo Moskva

71%

Draw or Torpedo Moskva

60%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+

17%

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals

69%

Baltika 2+ goals

32%

Baltika 3+ goals

11%

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

62%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

26%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)

56%

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.75 · 108 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.05 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.27 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.16

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.22 + Baltika defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Baltika scores more

40%

level

29%

Torpedo Moskva scores more

31%

Baltika at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff