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Baltika vs PFC Sochi — First League 2018

Baltika
Baltika
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
PFC Sochi
PFC Sochi
8/12/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 6Stadion Kaliningrad (Kaliningrad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Baltika37%
×Draw29%
PFC Sochi34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baltika
1.17
PFC Sochi
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 106 home / 38 away

creates per match

Baltika
1.25
PFC Sochi
1.45

allows per match

Baltika
0.75
PFC Sochi
1.08

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par
PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

PFC Sochi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Baltika or draw
66%
Baltika or PFC Sochi
71%
Draw or PFC Sochi
63%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+
16%
PFC Sochi wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals
69%
Baltika 2+ goals
33%
Baltika 3+ goals
11%
PFC Sochi 1+ goals
67%
PFC Sochi 2+ goals
30%
PFC Sochi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)
52%
PFC Sochi (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 106 matches

PFC Sochi away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.25 + PFC Sochi defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.17

PFC Sochi attack 1.45 + Baltika defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Baltika scores more
37%
level
29%
PFC Sochi scores more
34%

Baltika at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baltika vs PFC Sochi

Baltika and PFC Sochi drew 2-2 in First League on August 12, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Kaliningrad (Kaliningrad).