Baltika 1–1 Orenburg: Result & Stats | First League

Baltika

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Orenburg

7/24/2021

First League · Round 3Stadion Kaliningrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Baltika33%

×Draw28%

Orenburg39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaltikaExpected goals in this matchOrenburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.23

Baltika

1.10

Orenburg

1.23

Orenburg creates 12% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 40 away

1.25

creates per match

1.70

0.75

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Baltika

1.25

Orenburg

1.70

allows per match

Baltika

0.75

Orenburg

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par

Orenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Orenburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Baltika or draw

61%

Baltika or Orenburg

72%

Draw or Orenburg

67%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+

13%

Orenburg wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals

67%

Baltika 2+ goals

30%

Baltika 3+ goals

10%

Orenburg 1+ goals

71%

Orenburg 2+ goals

35%

Orenburg 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)

46%

Orenburg (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 106 matches

Orenburg away — creates 1.70, concedes 0.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.25 + Orenburg defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.10

Orenburg attack 1.70 + Baltika defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Baltika scores more

33%

level

28%

Orenburg scores more

39%

Orenburg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff