Baltika 0–0 Fakel Voronezh: Result & Stats

Baltika

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fakel Voronezh

11/21/2020

First League · Round 23Stadion Kaliningrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Baltika44%

×Draw28%

Fakel Voronezh28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaltikaExpected goals in this matchFakel Voronezh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.98

Baltika

1.29

Fakel Voronezh

0.98

Baltika creates 32% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 88 away

1.27

creates per match

1.22

0.75

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Baltika

1.27

Fakel Voronezh

1.22

allows per match

Baltika

0.75

Fakel Voronezh

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Fakel Voronezh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Baltika or draw

72%

Baltika or Fakel Voronezh

72%

Draw or Fakel Voronezh

56%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+

20%

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals

72%

Baltika 2+ goals

37%

Baltika 3+ goals

14%

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals

62%

Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals

26%

Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)

61%

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.75 · 108 matches

Fakel Voronezh away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.32 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.27 + Fakel Voronezh defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.22 + Baltika defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Baltika scores more

44%

level

28%

Fakel Voronezh scores more

28%

Baltika at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Roman Akbashev

47'

Ishkhan Geloyan

55'

M. Petrusev← I. Mazurov

61'

A. Razborov← M. Maksimov

72'

Oleg Dmitriev

81'

Andrey Nikitin

82'

M. Grigorjev← A. Nikitin

84'

M. Markin← I. Geloyan

84'

M. Marković← Allef

89'

Andrey Razborov

Baltika3-4-3

Fakel3-4-3

19

▼

Maksimov

15

▼

Nikitin

11

▼

34

88

10

33

92

3

39

1

1

18

26

20

9

6

19

10

33

▼

Allef

70

▼

Geloyan

4

Kovalev

Manager: E. Kaleshin

84'▲M. Markin←▼I. Geloyan

84'▲M. Marković←▼Allef

Baltika substitutes

11Markin13Marković5Valencia7Dzhamilov8Dudiev14Demjanov27Maklakov60Musaev67Borisko77Pletnev89Lazarev90Zhironkin

Manager: O. Vasilenko

55'▲M. Petrusev←▼I. Mazurov

61'▲A. Razborov←▼M. Maksimov

82'▲M. Grigorjev←▼A. Nikitin

Fakel Voronezh substitutes

77Petrusev22Razborov7Grigorjev5Solovjev8Zemskov13Drozdov25Smirnov26Pochivalin30Kortnev56Sedov

Match Recap: Baltika vs Fakel Voronezh

Baltika and Fakel Voronezh drew 0-0 in First League on November 21, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Kaliningrad in Kaliningrad.

Baltika vs Fakel Voronezh — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Baltika vs Fakel Voronezh