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Baltika vs Dynamo — Premier League 2025

Baltika
Baltika
Preview
17:45
Dynamo
Dynamo
8/1/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Rostec Arena
Big match
38%
Baltika
model favours
38%27%35%

Dynamo score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Baltika38%
×Draw27%
Dynamo35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baltika
1.30
Dynamo
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 31 away

creates per match

Baltika
1.50
Dynamo
1.58

allows per match

Baltika
0.89
Dynamo
1.10

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par
Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Dynamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Baltika or draw
65%
Baltika or Dynamo
73%
Draw or Dynamo
62%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+
17%
Dynamo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals
73%
Baltika 2+ goals
37%
Baltika 3+ goals
14%
Dynamo 1+ goals
71%
Dynamo 2+ goals
35%
Dynamo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)
52%
Dynamo (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Dynamo away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.50 + Dynamo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.30

Dynamo attack 1.58 + Baltika defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Baltika scores more
38%
level
27%
Dynamo scores more
35%

Baltika at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Baltika have won 4 in a row
  • Dynamo have won 3 in a row
  • Baltika score first in only 27% of matches
  • Baltika have scored in 8 games running
  • Dynamo win just 21% against the top half (vs 56% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Baltika
WWWWL
Dynamo
WWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baltika vs Dynamo — Match Preview

Baltika face Dynamo on August 1, 2026 in this Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Baltika host Dynamo at Rostec Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.