Baltika 1–1 Dinamo Moscow: Result & Stats | Cup

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaltikaExpected goals in this matchDinamo Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.41

Baltika

1.48

Dinamo Moscow

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 23 away

1.31

creates per match

1.74

1.08

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Baltika

1.31

Dinamo Moscow

1.74

allows per match

Baltika

1.08

Dinamo Moscow

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par

Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Dinamo Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Baltika or draw

64%

Baltika or Dinamo Moscow

75%

Draw or Dinamo Moscow

61%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+

19%

Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals

77%

Baltika 2+ goals

43%

Baltika 3+ goals

19%

Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals

76%

Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals

41%

Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)

52%

Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Dinamo Moscow away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.65 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.31 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.48

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.74 + Baltika defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Baltika scores more

39%

level

25%

Dinamo Moscow scores more

36%

Baltika at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Ilnur Alshin

33'

V. Grulev← N. Moro

35'

D. Makarov↳ S. Szymański

45'

Sergey Parshivlyuk

46'

Y. Kazaev← D. Klenkin

46'

I. Geloyan← M. Barsov

46'

G. Varela← S. Parshivlyuk

60'

Artem Meshchaninov

64'

O. Aleynik← M. Kašćelan

68'

D. Lesovoy← D. Makarov

69'

T. Musaev← A. Maksimenko

72'

Artem Popov

77'

F. Smolov← K. Tyukavin

79'

S. Karpovich← M. Tishkin

84'

I. Geloyan↳ I. Alshin

90+3'

Vyacheslav Grulev

90'

Fedor Smolov

120+1'

O. AleynikMissed penalty

120+2'

S. SzymańskiPenalty

120+3'

A. PopovPenalty

120+4'

F. SmolovPenalty

120+5'

I. AlshinPenalty

120+6'

A. ZakharyanPenalty

120+7'

T. MusaevPenalty

120+8'

D. LesovoyPenalty

120+9'

Y. KazaevPenalty

120+10'

D. FominPenalty

Possession

Shots

Statistics

BaltikaDinamo

Overview

54%Possession46%

11Total Shots10

3Corners4

9Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots10

3On Target3

4Off Target5

4Blocked2

Passing

54%Possession46%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls14

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1

Cup: Baltika 1–1 Dinamo Moscow

Baltika and Dinamo Moscow drew 1-1 in Cup on April 19, 2022.

Goals: D. Makarov (35'), I. Geloyan (84'), S. Szymański (120+2' pen), A. Popov (120+3' pen), F. Smolov (120+4' pen), I. Alshin (120+5' pen), A. Zakharyan (120+6' pen), T. Musaev (120+7' pen), D. Lesovoy (120+8' pen), Y. Kazaev (120+9' pen), D. Fomin (120+10' pen).

Baltika controlled possession (54%) and registered 11 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadion Kaliningrad in Kaliningrad.

Baltika vs Dinamo Moscow — Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Cup: Baltika 1–1 Dinamo Moscow