Baltika 2–0 Dinamo Bryansk: Result & Stats

Baltika

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dinamo Bryansk

4/24/2021

First League · Round 38Stadion Kaliningrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Baltika59%

×Draw26%

Dinamo Bryansk15%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaltikaExpected goals in this matchDinamo Bryansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.61

Baltika

1.49

Dinamo Bryansk

0.61

Baltika creates 144% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 21 away

1.27

creates per match

0.48

0.75

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Baltika

1.27

Dinamo Bryansk

0.48

allows per match

Baltika

0.75

Dinamo Bryansk

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Baltika or draw

85%

Baltika or Dinamo Bryansk

74%

Draw or Dinamo Bryansk

41%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+

31%

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals

77%

Baltika 2+ goals

44%

Baltika 3+ goals

19%

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals

46%

Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals

13%

Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)

79%

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.75 · 108 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.71 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.27 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.49

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.48 + Baltika defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Baltika scores more

59%

level

26%

Dinamo Bryansk scores more

15%

Baltika at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff