Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Baltika vs Dinamo Bryansk — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Baltika
Baltika
FT
0 – 0
Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
7/16/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Oktyabr'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Baltika46%
×Draw29%
Dinamo Bryansk25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baltika
1.25
Dinamo Bryansk
0.85

Baltika creates 47% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 7 away

creates per match

Baltika
1.79
Dinamo Bryansk
0.71

allows per match

Baltika
1.00
Dinamo Bryansk
0.71

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par
Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Baltika or draw
75%
Baltika or Dinamo Bryansk
71%
Draw or Dinamo Bryansk
54%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+
21%
Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals
71%
Baltika 2+ goals
36%
Baltika 3+ goals
13%
Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
57%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
21%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)
64%
Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 0.71, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.79 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.25

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.71 + Baltika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Baltika scores more
46%
level
29%
Dinamo Bryansk scores more
25%

Baltika at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baltika vs Dinamo Bryansk

Baltika and Dinamo Bryansk drew 0-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 16, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Oktyabr' in Moskva.