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Baltika vs Avangard Kursk — First League 2026

Baltika
Baltika
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
R. Magal 61'
A. Saplinov 8'
V. Steklov 24'
3/3/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 25Stadion Kaliningrad (Kaliningrad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Baltika47%
×Draw29%
Avangard Kursk25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baltika
1.29
Avangard Kursk
0.85

Baltika creates 52% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 38 away

creates per match

Baltika
1.25
Avangard Kursk
0.97

allows per match

Baltika
0.74
Avangard Kursk
1.34

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par
Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Avangard Kursk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Baltika or draw
75%
Baltika or Avangard Kursk
71%
Draw or Avangard Kursk
53%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+
22%
Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals
72%
Baltika 2+ goals
37%
Baltika 3+ goals
14%
Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
57%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
21%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)
66%
Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.74 · 110 matches

Avangard Kursk away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.25 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Avangard Kursk attack 0.97 + Baltika defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Baltika scores more
47%
level
29%
Avangard Kursk scores more
25%

Baltika at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
A. Saplinov
10'
Shamil Gasanov
13'
Stanislav Prychynenko
18'
Maksim Tyshkin
24'
V. Steklov
41'
Alexander Troshechkin
41'
Aleksandr Saplinov
61'
R. Magal
90'
Ilya Kobyshkin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Baltika 2–1 Avangard Kursk

Baltika beat Avangard Kursk 2-1 in First League on March 3, 2019.

Goals: A. Saplinov (8'), V. Steklov (24'), R. Magal (61').

The match was played at Stadion Kaliningrad (Kaliningrad).