Avangard Kursk 0–0 Baltika: Result & Stats

Avangard Kursk

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Baltika

8/31/2019

First League · Round 11Stadion Trudovye Reservy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Avangard Kursk36%

×Draw27%

Baltika37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avangard KurskExpected goals in this matchBaltika

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.27

Avangard Kursk

1.23

Baltika

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 112 away

1.44

creates per match

1.32

1.23

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Avangard Kursk

1.44

Baltika

1.32

allows per match

Avangard Kursk

1.23

Baltika

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avangard Kursk ↓

Baltika →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Avangard Kursk or draw

63%

Avangard Kursk or Baltika

73%

Draw or Baltika

64%

Winning margin

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+

15%

Baltika wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals

71%

Avangard Kursk 2+ goals

35%

Avangard Kursk 3+ goals

13%

Baltika 1+ goals

72%

Baltika 2+ goals

36%

Baltika 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)

49%

Baltika (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avangard Kursk at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avangard Kursk attack 1.44 + Baltika defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.23

Baltika attack 1.32 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Avangard Kursk scores more

36%

level

27%

Baltika scores more

37%

Baltika at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

50'

61'

62'

67'

70'

D. Kayumov← R. Minaev

70'

Allef← M. Markin

71'

A. Chochiev

82'

A. Voynov← S. Breev

88'

K. Mashukov← M. Zemskov

88'

I. Kubyshkin← A. Kasaev

Avangard

Baltika

1

44

2

27

18

10

17

19

▼

Shavaev

96

Kuzmin

9

Makarchuk

11

▼

13

4

24

3

▼

Kasaev

86

Chirkin

9

Grigorjev

20

▼

Breev

8

▼

Zemskov

18

Batyutin

14

Kovalev

77

▼

Minaev

Manager: O. Vasilenko

70'▲D. Kayumov←▼R. Minaev

82'▲A. Voynov←▼S. Breev

88'▲K. Mashukov←▼M. Zemskov

88'▲I. Kubyshkin←▼A. Kasaev

Avangard Kursk substitutes

6Kayumov22Voynov7Mashukov23Kubyshkin1Sautin17Sinyaev40Timoshin66Lelyukaev

Manager: E. Kaleshin

62'▲M. Plopa←▼A. Shavaev

70'▲Allef←▼M. Markin

Baltika substitutes

3Plopa33Allef7Glushkov8Dudiev26Meshchaninov67Borisko81Zhironkin