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Baltika vs Arsenal Tula — First League 2018

Baltika
Baltika
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
9/21/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 11Rostec Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Baltika45%
×Draw30%
Arsenal Tula26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baltika
1.21
Arsenal Tula
0.84

Baltika creates 44% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 68 away

creates per match

Baltika
1.27
Arsenal Tula
0.94

allows per match

Baltika
0.75
Arsenal Tula
1.15

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par
Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Arsenal Tula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Baltika or draw
74%
Baltika or Arsenal Tula
70%
Draw or Arsenal Tula
55%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+
20%
Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals
70%
Baltika 2+ goals
34%
Baltika 3+ goals
12%
Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
57%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
21%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)
64%
Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.75 · 108 matches

Arsenal Tula away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.15 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.27 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Arsenal Tula attack 0.94 + Baltika defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Baltika scores more
45%
level
30%
Arsenal Tula scores more
26%

Baltika at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
Artem Popov
46'
I. Petrov← K. Nikishin
60'
A. Eldarushev← K. Appaev
60'
A. Mokhammad← V. Lisakovich
65'
Sergey Pryakhin
65'
M. Turishchev← M. Odeyinka
69'
G. Zhilkin← S. Tkachev
77'
N. Titkov← A. Mendel
83'
N. Razdorskikh← D. Lipovoy
83'
E. Shevchenko← V. Levin
83'
A. Korotkov← A. Tsaraev
89'
Y. Kovalev← S. Pryakhin

Statistics

BaltikaArsenal
Discipline
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

First League: Baltika 0–0 Arsenal Tula

Baltika and Arsenal Tula drew 0-0 in First League on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Rostec Arena in Kaliningrad.