Arsenal Tula 0–0 Baltika: Result & Stats

Arsenal Tula

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Baltika

5/24/2025

First League · Round 34Stadion Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Arsenal Tula33%

×Draw29%

Baltika38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arsenal TulaExpected goals in this matchBaltika

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.17

Arsenal Tula

1.08

Baltika

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 108 away

1.17

creates per match

1.35

0.99

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Arsenal Tula

1.17

Baltika

1.35

allows per match

Arsenal Tula

0.99

Baltika

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula ↓

Baltika →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula or draw

62%

Arsenal Tula or Baltika

71%

Draw or Baltika

67%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula wins by 2+

13%

Baltika wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula 1+ goals

66%

Arsenal Tula 2+ goals

29%

Arsenal Tula 3+ goals

10%

Baltika 1+ goals

69%

Baltika 2+ goals

33%

Baltika 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)

47%

Baltika (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.99 · 69 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.00 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula attack 1.17 + Baltika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Baltika attack 1.35 + Arsenal Tula defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Arsenal Tula scores more

33%

level

29%

Baltika scores more

38%

Baltika at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

N. Titkov← I. Petrov

46'

D. Nikitin← Y. Kovalev

58'

A. Khabibov← A. Berdnikov

58'

A. Tsaraev← M. Brnović

58'

D. Lipovoy← S. Tkachev

65'

O. Isaenko← E. Chernov

65'

K. Nikishin← M. Petrov

75'

Andrey Mendel

76'

K. Bogdanets← E. Reyes

81'

Dmitri Nikitin

84'

T. Shchelkunov← V. Saus

89'

A. Kalmykov← U. Đuranović

Statistics

ArsenalBaltika

Discipline

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

First League: Arsenal Tula 0–0 Baltika

Arsenal Tula and Baltika drew 0-0 in First League on May 24, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Arsenal in Tula.

Arsenal Tula vs Baltika — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

First League: Arsenal Tula 0–0 Baltika