Baltika 3–0 Alaniya Vladikavkaz: Result & Stats

Baltika

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

K. Nikishin 80'

S. Pryakhin 45', 21'

11/29/2024

First League · Round 21Rostec Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Baltika43%

×Draw28%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaltikaExpected goals in this matchAlaniya Vladikavkaz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.00

Baltika

1.30

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.00

Baltika creates 30% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 70 away

1.27

creates per match

1.24

0.76

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Baltika

1.27

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.24

allows per match

Baltika

0.76

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Baltika or draw

71%

Baltika or Alaniya Vladikavkaz

72%

Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz

57%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+

20%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals

73%

Baltika 2+ goals

37%

Baltika 3+ goals

14%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals

63%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals

26%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)

60%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.76 · 107 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.33 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.27 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.30

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.24 + Baltika defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Baltika scores more

43%

level

28%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more

29%

Baltika at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

S. Pryakhin

45'

S. Pryakhin

54'

Ibragim Tsallagov

55'

N. Abdokov← B. Khadartsev

55'

W. Chimezie← B. Gurtsiev

55'

V. Nafikov← I. Tsallagov

57'

Allon Butaev

69'

D. Terentyev← Y. Kovalev

69'

K. Appaev← A. Eldarushev

69'

K. Nikishin← V. Lisakovich

74'

77'

80'

82'

83'

N. Gassama← A. Mokhammad

Statistics

BaltikaAlaniya

Discipline

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0