Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3–1 Baltika: Result & Stats

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Baltika

I. Mashukov 90+4'

A. Galoyan 12'

B. Gurtsiev 4'

G. Guzina 58'

5/26/2023

First League · Round 33Akhmat Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz37%

×Draw27%

Baltika37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alaniya VladikavkazExpected goals in this matchBaltika

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.29

Baltika

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 109 away

1.57

creates per match

1.34

1.24

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.57

Baltika

1.34

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.24

Baltika

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz ↓

Baltika →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or draw

63%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or Baltika

73%

Draw or Baltika

63%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+

16%

Baltika wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals

72%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals

37%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals

14%

Baltika 1+ goals

72%

Baltika 2+ goals

37%

Baltika 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)

50%

Baltika (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.24 · 70 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.00 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.57 + Baltika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Baltika attack 1.34 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more

37%

level

27%

Baltika scores more

37%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Alaniya Vladikavkaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

12'

23'

34'

58'

66'

A. Dudiev← E. Valiakhmetov

66'

D. Barkov← G. Guzina

68'

A. Bagaev← B. Gurtsiev

68'

I. Mashukov← A. Galoyan

73'

A. Chochiev← S. Kachmazov

73'

K. Folmer← V. Lazarev

73'

T. Avanesyan← Y. Kazaev

79'

Allon Butaev

80'

G. Gogrichiani← T. Musaev

82'

D. Dzakhov← A. Tsaraev

82'

A. Mazurin← Z. Tarba

90+2'

Khetag Khosonov

90+4'

I. Mashukov

Statistics

AlaniyaBaltika

Overview

2Corners10

Match Recap: Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Baltika

Alaniya Vladikavkaz beat Baltika 3-1 in First League on May 26, 2023.

Goals: B. Gurtsiev (4'), A. Galoyan (12'), G. Guzina (58'), I. Mashukov (90+4').

The match was played at Akhmat Arena in Groznyi.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Baltika — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Match Recap: Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Baltika