Baltika 2–0 Alaniya II: Result & Stats

Baltika

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Alaniya II

5/2/2021

First League · Round 40Stadion Kaliningrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Baltika35%

×Draw30%

Alaniya II35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaltikaExpected goals in this matchAlaniya II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.06

Baltika

1.07

Alaniya II

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 106 home / 21 away

1.25

creates per match

1.38

0.75

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Baltika

1.25

Alaniya II

1.38

allows per match

Baltika

0.75

Alaniya II

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par

Alaniya II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Alaniya II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Baltika or draw

65%

Baltika or Alaniya II

70%

Draw or Alaniya II

65%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+

14%

Alaniya II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals

66%

Baltika 2+ goals

29%

Baltika 3+ goals

9%

Alaniya II 1+ goals

65%

Alaniya II 2+ goals

29%

Alaniya II 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)

50%

Alaniya II (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 106 matches

Alaniya II away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.25 + Alaniya II defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.07

Alaniya II attack 1.38 + Baltika defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Baltika scores more

35%

level

30%

Alaniya II scores more

35%

Baltika at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff