Alaniya II 5–0 Baltika: Result & Stats

Alaniya II

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Baltika

11/7/2020

First League · Round 20Respublikanskiy stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Alaniya II46%

×Draw25%

Baltika29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alaniya IIExpected goals in this matchBaltika

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.18

Alaniya II

1.57

Baltika

1.18

Alaniya II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 108 away

2.14

creates per match

1.35

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Alaniya II

2.14

Baltika

1.35

allows per match

Alaniya II

1.00

Baltika

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alaniya II+0.00on par

Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya II ↓

Baltika →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Alaniya II or draw

71%

Alaniya II or Baltika

75%

Draw or Baltika

54%

Winning margin

Alaniya II wins by 2+

24%

Baltika wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Alaniya II 1+ goals

79%

Alaniya II 2+ goals

46%

Alaniya II 3+ goals

21%

Baltika 1+ goals

69%

Baltika 2+ goals

33%

Baltika 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Alaniya II (draw refunded)

62%

Baltika (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya II at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.00 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya II attack 2.14 + Baltika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Baltika attack 1.35 + Alaniya II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Alaniya II scores more

46%

level

25%

Baltika scores more

29%

Alaniya II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Alaniya II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff