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Ballyclare Comrades vs Portadown — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Ballyclare Comrades
Ballyclare Comrades
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Portadown
Portadown
Unknown 61'
R. Mayse 51'
7/9/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Dixon Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ballyclare Comrades12%
×Draw18%
Portadown71%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ballyclare Comrades
0.81
Portadown
2.32

Portadown creates 186% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Ballyclare Comrades
0.43
Portadown
2.20

allows per match

Ballyclare Comrades
2.43
Portadown
1.20

finishing

Ballyclare Comrades+0.00on par
Portadown+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballyclare Comrades ↓

Portadown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–212%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Ballyclare Comrades or draw
29%
Ballyclare Comrades or Portadown
82%
Draw or Portadown
88%

Winning margin

Ballyclare Comrades wins by 2+
3%
Portadown wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Ballyclare Comrades 1+ goals
56%
Ballyclare Comrades 2+ goals
19%
Ballyclare Comrades 3+ goals
5%
Portadown 1+ goals
90%
Portadown 2+ goals
67%
Portadown 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Ballyclare Comrades (draw refunded)
14%
Portadown (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballyclare Comrades at home — creates 0.43, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Portadown away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballyclare Comrades attack 0.43 + Portadown defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.81

Portadown attack 2.20 + Ballyclare Comrades defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Ballyclare Comrades scores more
12%
level
18%
Portadown scores more
71%

Portadown at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Portadown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'
R. Mayse
61'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Ballyclare Comrades 1–1 Portadown

Ballyclare Comrades and Portadown drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 9, 2024.

Goals: R. Mayse (51'), ? (61').

The match was played at Dixon Park in Ballyclare.