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Ballyclare Comrades vs Portadown — League #407 2026

Ballyclare Comrades
Ballyclare Comrades
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Portadown
Portadown
C. McCurry 80'
G. Donnelly 62'
R. Mayse 3'
8/19/2023League #407League #407 · Round 3Dixon Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ballyclare Comrades34%
×Draw24%
Portadown42%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ballyclare Comrades
1.48
Portadown
1.67

Portadown creates 13% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

Ballyclare Comrades
1.42
Portadown
1.18

allows per match

Ballyclare Comrades
2.17
Portadown
1.55

finishing

Ballyclare Comrades+0.00on par
Portadown+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballyclare Comrades ↓

Portadown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ballyclare Comrades or draw
58%
Ballyclare Comrades or Portadown
76%
Draw or Portadown
66%

Winning margin

Ballyclare Comrades wins by 2+
16%
Portadown wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Ballyclare Comrades 1+ goals
77%
Ballyclare Comrades 2+ goals
43%
Ballyclare Comrades 3+ goals
19%
Portadown 1+ goals
81%
Portadown 2+ goals
50%
Portadown 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Ballyclare Comrades (draw refunded)
45%
Portadown (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballyclare Comrades at home — creates 1.42, concedes 2.17 · 12 matches

Portadown away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballyclare Comrades attack 1.42 + Portadown defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.48

Portadown attack 1.18 + Ballyclare Comrades defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ballyclare Comrades scores more
34%
level
24%
Portadown scores more
42%

Portadown at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Portadown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
R. Mayse
62'
G. Donnelly
80'
C. McCurry

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ballyclare Comrades vs Portadown

Ballyclare Comrades beat Portadown 2-1 in League #407 on August 19, 2023.

Goals: R. Mayse (3'), G. Donnelly (62'), C. McCurry (80').

The match was played at Dixon Park in Ballyclare.