Baladiyyat Al Mehalla vs Al Ahly — Premier League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 17+ matches
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla20%
Al Ahly56%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Al Ahly creates 86% more chances
Season form · 17 home / 128 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla ↓
Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches
Al Ahly away — creates 1.78, concedes 0.71 · 128 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla attack 1.18 + Al Ahly defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.94
Al Ahly attack 1.78 + Baladiyyat Al Mehalla defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.75
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 56%?"
Al Ahly at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 56% does not mean "Al Ahly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Al Ahly
Zamalek SC
AL Assiouty
AL Masry
El Mokawloon
Misr EL Makasa
Ismaily SC
El Geish
Enppi
Wadi Degla
Al Ittihad
Smouha SC
El Entag EL Harby
El Gouna FC
Haras El Hodood
Petrojet
El Dakhleya
Nogoom El Mostakbal FCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla host Al Ahly on Saturday, 11 May 2024 at 16:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2018/2019 season.
Premier League: Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 1–2 Al Ahly
Al Ahly beat Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 2-1 in Premier League on May 11, 2024.
The match was played at El Mahalla Stadium in El-Mahalla El-Kubra.