Al Ahly 5–1 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla: Result & Stats

Al Ahly

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

2/27/2024

Premier League · Round 5Cairo International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al Ahly73%

×Draw18%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al AhlyExpected goals in this matchBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.60

Al Ahly

2.13

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

0.60

Al Ahly creates 255% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 17 away

2.13

creates per match

0.65

0.56

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Al Ahly

2.13

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

0.65

allows per match

Al Ahly

0.56

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Ahly+0.00on par

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahly ↓

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Al Ahly or draw

91%

Al Ahly or Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

82%

Draw or Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

27%

Winning margin

Al Ahly wins by 2+

48%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Al Ahly 1+ goals

88%

Al Ahly 2+ goals

63%

Al Ahly 3+ goals

35%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 1+ goals

45%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 2+ goals

12%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Al Ahly (draw refunded)

89%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahly at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.56 · 126 matches

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla away — creates 0.65, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahly attack 2.13 + Baladiyyat Al Mehalla defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.13

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla attack 0.65 + Al Ahly defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Al Ahly scores more

73%

level

18%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla scores more

9%

Al Ahly at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Al Ahly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff