Bala Azul 1–1 Archena Sport: Result & Stats

Bala Azul

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Archena Sport

5/1/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 34Estadio Playa Sol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bala Azul42%

×Draw29%

Archena Sport28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bala AzulExpected goals in this matchArchena Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.93

Bala Azul

1.21

Archena Sport

0.93

Bala Azul creates 30% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.12

creates per match

1.06

0.80

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Bala Azul

1.12

Archena Sport

1.06

allows per match

Bala Azul

0.80

Archena Sport

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bala Azul+0.00on par

Archena Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bala Azul ↓

Archena Sport →

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Bala Azul or draw

72%

Bala Azul or Archena Sport

71%

Draw or Archena Sport

58%

Winning margin

Bala Azul wins by 2+

19%

Archena Sport wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bala Azul 1+ goals

70%

Bala Azul 2+ goals

34%

Bala Azul 3+ goals

12%

Archena Sport 1+ goals

61%

Archena Sport 2+ goals

24%

Archena Sport 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Bala Azul (draw refunded)

60%

Archena Sport (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bala Azul at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Archena Sport away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bala Azul attack 1.12 + Archena Sport defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Archena Sport attack 1.06 + Bala Azul defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bala Azul scores more

42%

level

29%

Archena Sport scores more

28%

Bala Azul at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bala Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Bala Azul 1–1 Archena Sport

Bala Azul and Archena Sport drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on May 1, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Playa Sol in Puerto de Mazarrón.

Bala Azul vs Archena Sport — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Bala Azul 1–1 Archena Sport