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Archena Sport vs Bala Azul — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Archena Sport
Archena Sport
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Bala Azul
Bala Azul
1/12/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 17Campo de fútbol Municipal Andrés Abenza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Archena Sport42%
×Draw25%
Bala Azul33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Archena Sport
1.48
Bala Azul
1.27

Archena Sport creates 17% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Archena Sport
1.65
Bala Azul
0.90

allows per match

Archena Sport
1.65
Bala Azul
1.31

finishing

Archena Sport+0.00on par
Bala Azul+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Archena Sport ↓

Bala Azul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Archena Sport or draw
67%
Archena Sport or Bala Azul
75%
Draw or Bala Azul
58%

Winning margin

Archena Sport wins by 2+
20%
Bala Azul wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Archena Sport 1+ goals
77%
Archena Sport 2+ goals
43%
Archena Sport 3+ goals
19%
Bala Azul 1+ goals
72%
Bala Azul 2+ goals
36%
Bala Azul 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Archena Sport (draw refunded)
56%
Bala Azul (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Archena Sport at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Bala Azul away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Archena Sport attack 1.65 + Bala Azul defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.48

Bala Azul attack 0.90 + Archena Sport defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Archena Sport scores more
42%
level
25%
Bala Azul scores more
33%

Archena Sport at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Archena Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Archena Sport 3 – 2 Bala Azul

Archena Sport beat Bala Azul 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 12, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol Municipal Andrés Abenza in Archena.