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Balıkesirspor vs Osmanlispor — 1. Lig 2018

Balıkesirspor
Balıkesirspor
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Osmanlispor
Osmanlispor
12/28/20191. Lig1. Lig · Round 17Balıkesir Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Balıkesirspor35%
×Draw26%
Osmanlispor39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balıkesirspor
1.30
Osmanlispor
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 52 away

creates per match

Balıkesirspor
1.14
Osmanlispor
1.10

allows per match

Balıkesirspor
1.70
Osmanlispor
1.46

finishing

Balıkesirspor+0.00on par
Osmanlispor+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balıkesirspor ↓

Osmanlispor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Balıkesirspor or draw
61%
Balıkesirspor or Osmanlispor
74%
Draw or Osmanlispor
65%

Winning margin

Balıkesirspor wins by 2+
15%
Osmanlispor wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Balıkesirspor 1+ goals
73%
Balıkesirspor 2+ goals
37%
Balıkesirspor 3+ goals
14%
Osmanlispor 1+ goals
75%
Osmanlispor 2+ goals
41%
Osmanlispor 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Balıkesirspor (draw refunded)
47%
Osmanlispor (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balıkesirspor at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.70 · 69 matches

Osmanlispor away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.46 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balıkesirspor attack 1.14 + Osmanlispor defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.30

Osmanlispor attack 1.10 + Balıkesirspor defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Balıkesirspor scores more
35%
level
26%
Osmanlispor scores more
39%

Osmanlispor at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Osmanlispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Balıkesirspor vs Osmanlispor

Balıkesirspor and Osmanlispor drew 1-1 in 1. Lig on December 28, 2019.

The match was played at Balıkesir Atatürk Stadyumu in Balıkesir.