Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ankaraspor vs Balıkesirspor — 1. Lig 2018

Ankaraspor
Ankaraspor
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Balıkesirspor
Balıkesirspor
10/25/20201. Lig1. Lig · Round 7Osmanlı Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ankaraspor45%
×Draw27%
Balıkesirspor28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ankaraspor
1.42
Balıkesirspor
1.06

Ankaraspor creates 34% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 69 away

creates per match

Ankaraspor
1.29
Balıkesirspor
0.78

allows per match

Ankaraspor
1.35
Balıkesirspor
1.54

finishing

Ankaraspor+0.00on par
Balıkesirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ankaraspor ↓

Balıkesirspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ankaraspor or draw
72%
Ankaraspor or Balıkesirspor
73%
Draw or Balıkesirspor
55%

Winning margin

Ankaraspor wins by 2+
22%
Balıkesirspor wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ankaraspor 1+ goals
76%
Ankaraspor 2+ goals
41%
Ankaraspor 3+ goals
17%
Balıkesirspor 1+ goals
65%
Balıkesirspor 2+ goals
29%
Balıkesirspor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ankaraspor (draw refunded)
62%
Balıkesirspor (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ankaraspor at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.35 · 51 matches

Balıkesirspor away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.54 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ankaraspor attack 1.29 + Balıkesirspor defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.42

Balıkesirspor attack 0.78 + Ankaraspor defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ankaraspor scores more
45%
level
27%
Balıkesirspor scores more
28%

Ankaraspor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ankaraspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ankaraspor vs Balıkesirspor

Balıkesirspor beat Ankaraspor 2-1 in 1. Lig on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Osmanlı Stadı in Ankara.