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Baka City vs Silver Strikers — Super League 2026

Baka City
Baka City
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Silver Strikers
Silver Strikers
5/4/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 4Karonga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Baka City21%
×Draw30%
Silver Strikers50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baka City
0.69
Silver Strikers
1.25

Silver Strikers creates 81% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 84 away

creates per match

Baka City
0.67
Silver Strikers
1.17

allows per match

Baka City
1.33
Silver Strikers
0.70

finishing

Baka City+0.00on par
Silver Strikers+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baka City ↓

Silver Strikers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–118%
0–211%
0–35%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Baka City or draw
50%
Baka City or Silver Strikers
70%
Draw or Silver Strikers
79%

Winning margin

Baka City wins by 2+
6%
Silver Strikers wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Baka City 1+ goals
50%
Baka City 2+ goals
15%
Baka City 3+ goals
3%
Silver Strikers 1+ goals
71%
Silver Strikers 2+ goals
36%
Silver Strikers 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Baka City (draw refunded)
29%
Silver Strikers (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baka City at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Silver Strikers away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.70 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baka City attack 0.67 + Silver Strikers defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.69

Silver Strikers attack 1.17 + Baka City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Baka City scores more
21%
level
30%
Silver Strikers scores more
50%

Silver Strikers at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Silver Strikers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baka City vs Silver Strikers

Silver Strikers beat Baka City 2-0 in Super League on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Karonga Stadium in Karonga.